Back to feed
Nicholas Decker 11/11/2025

Do Morons Make Prediction Markets More Accurate?

By Nicholas Decker • 1 min read
Economics

In the past few years, we have seen the widespread popularity of prediction markets, like Kalshi or Polymarket.

Continue Reading on Nicholas Decker

This article continues with additional insights and analysis. Read the full article for free.

Read Full Article on Nicholas Decker

Related Articles

Naked Capitalism • 11/12/2025

Coffee Break: Senate Dems Throw Teetering Trump a Lifeline

Senate Democrats threw a teetering Trump administration a lifeline by folding on the U.S. government shutdown. Let's parse the kayfabe.
Brad DeLong • 11/12/2025

Wednesday MAMLMs: Notes on Zuckerberg’s "PASI" Pivot: From Adtech Moats to "Superintelligence" Moonshot

Killing FAIR, chasing “Personal Artificial Super-Intelligence”: the fast‑second strategy is dead; “PASI” reframes AI as product platform, not plumbing'; Scale AI, TBD Lab, and nine‑figure hires...