On August 4, 2025, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that 73,000 payrolls were created. More importantly May's job gains were revised down from 144,000 to 19,000 and June's gains were revised down from 147,000 to 14,000. That means the three-month average of monthly payroll gains has fallen sharply to 35,000.
That means the three-month average of monthly payroll gains has fallen sharply to 35,000. In addition, the unemployment ticked up from 4. As you can see in the chart below, 35,000 is a new cycle low and very much consistent with the start of prior recessions.
As you can see in the chart below, 35,000 is a new cycle low and very much consistent with the start of prior recessions. Going back to the 1940s, the average three-month gain in nonfarm payrolls at the start of a recession is 96,000—we are now well below that. The downward revisions came after the July 30, 2025 report showing that GDP grew 3.